2024/25: A STYLE GUIDE
Guest writer Sam takes us through his impressions of how we may set up this season
I didn't want to do the usual pre season preview so I'm going to do something a bit different, with a breakdown of the differences between last seasons tactics and how I think we might set up this year.
I will go on to talk about three basic aspects of how we might change; shape, personnel and playing out from the back.
SHAPE
Gary O'Neil has spoken briefly this pre season about changing our shape to a '4 at the back'. While it is true that based on the way Wolves have set up in pre season that they have indeed changed shape, to say that they are now playing a 4 at the back is a very simplistic and dumbed down way of looking at it (I wish managers wouldn't do this, but I get why they do).
To compare the two shapes, let's first look at how Wolves set up in the majority of games last season.
When Wolves were facing a phase of opposition possession they dropped into a 4-4-2 mid block, pressing when the opposition full back received the ball close to the touchline, on a mis-control or when individual opposition forward players broke shape to come deep to collect the ball. If Pedro Neto was fit, he would stay a little higher on the right hand side in anticipation of the counter attack.
Sá
Semedo - Kilman - Dawson - Toti
Neto - J.Gomes - Lemina - Aït-Nouri
Hwang - Cunha
When possession was won, Nelson Semedo would move high and stay wide, stretching the opposition while Toti Gomes on the other side would slide across to make a back 3.
Sá
Kilman - Dawson - Toti
J.Gomes - Lemina
Semedo - Neto - Hwang - Cunha - Aït-Nouri
Loosely, this created the 3-2-5 shape that a lot of the top teams use. There was flexibility within this shape; sometimes Aït-Nouri would move centrally to sit alongside one of the central midfielders, the other CM (usually Lemina) moving forward centrally into the front line, and one of Neto/Hwang/Cunha moving wide - but it was always more or less five attacking players with a 3-2 behind that.
There were two main issues with this shape in my opinion. Firstly, we were far too easily countered when we lost the ball due to a lack of mobility across the back three, and too large a gap between Toti and Aït-Nouri when Rayan was caught up field (the chances we conceded away at West Ham were a perfect example of that). Secondly, a lack of creativity in the defensive 3-2 meant that when teams got back into their shape, we were often stuck recycling possession in front of them with no way through.
When O'Neil initially took over, he spoke of wanting his teams to do 'everything'. That he eventually settled into this formation I think was a compromise and an admission that the group of players at his disposal in fact couldn't do everything he asked of them.
The way we have lined up in pre-season is, I think, another attempt to do 'everything'. The most obvious change is that we now play with Rayan Aït-Nouri as part of the back four when we are out of possession. This allows us to have one extra 'creative' player and one less defensive player in our XI. It also allows us to play someone in the LM position who will stay high and wide mirroring Semedo on the opposite side, allowing Aït-Nouri and Matheus Cunha to drop into pockets in the left half space. The obvious downside is that we will miss the physicality of the 'extra' centre back.
Let's look at what it might look like.
Out of possession:
Sá
Semedo - Mosquera - Toti - Aït-Nouri
Sarabia - J.Gomes - Lemina - R.Gomes
Strand Larsen - Cunha
In possession:
Sá
Mosquera - Toti
J.Gomes - Lemina - Aït-Nouri
Semedo - Sarabia - Strand Larsen - Cunha - R.Gomes
There is obviously flexibility within that. Aït-Nouri may drop next to Toti to make a 3-2 (this will happen against teams who play two strikers) and Aït-Nouri doesn't necessarily have to drop onto the left side of the midfield three; he may sit centrally behind J.Gomes and Lemina.
There is far more pace across the back line with Mosquera and Aït-Nouri essentially coming in for Kilman and Dawson, which should mean we can play higher up and control more of the game. It also means that there should be more creativity in the 2-3 and allow us to break down teams who sit in a low block. R.Gomes offers real pace and width on the left side, and this stretching of the opponent should free up more space across the line.
As you can see, the change of shape isn't really that drastic. We are just being braver within that shape by using our personnel in different ways. While we are in a way moving to a 'back 4' in the traditional sense of only picking two starting centre backs, the only change of shape is an increase in width and a greater flexibility for the LB to either make a 2-3 or a 3-2 behind five fairly fluid attacking players. There are obvious risks to this defensively, but the aim is to control more of the ball, stretch teams laterally, get more players into areas where they can create chances and prevent games from descending into those 'basketball' games that we saw all too often last season (sometimes ending in elation, but with also heartbreak).
PERSONNEL
The biggest risk for me is the Mosquera/Toti partnership. Now, we may add another starting centre back between now and the end of August, but right now that's what we've got to work with. Physically they have all the tools to be able to play this role, and you would think by now that Toti had the experience needed; he has a lot of Premier League minutes under his belt now (4,118 minutes across 56 appearances dating back to early 2022). Mosquera's spells at Cincinnati and Villarreal and form in pre-season suggests to me that we've got one hell of a player on our hands here, but he's obviously very inexperienced. If this partnership fails I have much less faith in Santi Bueno and Craig Dawson to play CB in this shape which may see us revert to the 'compromise' of last season.
Gary O'Neil has also talked about how we'll miss the Premier League experience of Max Kilman. While I disagree with this on the level that I never felt Kilman was ever capable of stamping his influence on a game in the way you'd expect someone of his experience to do, I do get what he's saying and we may want to sign someone who has multiple Premier League seasons under his belt (doesn't necessarily have to be at CB).
I will admit that I haven't seen a great deal of Strand Larsen before we signed him. He seems to have all the characteristics needed to cause problems for opposition defences with both pace in behind and strength to hold the ball up, and also offer a genuine goal threat. It's such a shame that Sasa Kalajdzic is so injury prone and slow though, because on the brief showing in pre-season it looks like Strand Larsen doesn't have the same quality touch that the big Austrian does. Hwang will spend time moving between Strand Larsen, Sarabia and Cunha's positions in this season's formation, but I still feel we need another striker.
Right now it looks like O’Neil is rotating between R.Gomes and Chiquinho for the LM spot. There is a clear difference in quality there for me, and we should look to offload Chiquinho now while he has value, while replacing him with someone who can offer real competition to Rodrigo.
Neto will be a huge loss and will need to be replaced; hopefully we can get someone in with real quality. Pedro was the real X factor in the squad. Cunha has that as well but we can't just rely on him. It doesn't necessarily have to be in the position Neto has vacated. but we do have to add some genuine class into the squad or we will suffer in his absence.
I've talked about Aït-Nouri a lot and he will be a key player for us. I worry that we have nothing behind him if he is injured or suspended though. Matt Doherty is patently not fit for purpose at this level, especially at LB, and Toti is a different kind of player entirely (not to mention part of our first choice CB partnership). We have the option of moving Semedo or Pedro Lima across, but that would be far from ideal. I've never been a big Hugo Bueno fan, but I feel we could regret sending him out on loan if we don't replace him as Matt Hobbs’ comments on his departure suggested.
The goalkeeper situation is up in the air as well. I'm not sure O’Neil has ever really taken to José Sá, while Dan Bentley is not good enough to be a Premier League back up. It would obviously depend on teams coming in for both players but we could be in the unique position where we have to replace both keepers during the opening month of the season.
Daniel Podence and Gonçalo Guedes are huge question marks. Podence, if he is willing, would be welcomed back with a clear space in the squad and the prospect of seeing a lot of game time. Guedes would be less certain. If we can't find anyone to buy or loan him, it's unclear what we would do with him. We could at least use Fábio Silva's hair to mop up the South Bank toilets post match.
To do 'everything' as Gary O'Neil has talked about, you need a well rounded squad. We're a far way from that yet, but we're a lot closer than a lot of outsiders would think.
PLAYING OUT FROM THE BACK
Now this is something that isn't going to change. Wolves fans, you're just going to have to get used to it. Hopefully with the shift in personnel this is something we do more effectively than last season, but O’Neil has shown no willingness to move away from this strategy and nor should he. The risks are obvious and yes, we will concede goals next season through seemingly stupid errors, but the benefits far outweigh them.
Mosquera seems far more capable of playing this way than Dawson or Kilman, Aït-Nouri should have a greater role in build up and we know how good he can be on the ball, Strand Larsen should stretch teams vertically and Gomes laterally. It should start to show more results than it did last season.
Please stop moaning about it. It's not going to change and having someone scream 'GERRIT AWAAAAAY' into the back of my head every week is getting a bit tiresome.
My thanks to Sam for his in-depth analysis. If you too would like to contribute a piece for the site, please get in touch. I can’t pay you though. I still have to pay for therapy sessions after watching the Max Kilman/Nathan Collins centre half partnership and that takes up pretty much all my budget.
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Very interesting article - we will see in the coming weeks how it pans out.